Food for Thought

I caught this quote yesterday from Abdul Hakim-Shabazz at Indiana Barrister.

"Hoosiers are kind of funny about individuals running for one office, getting elected and then turning around and running for another office."

As Nelson Peters prepares to run for mayor after recently being elected county commisioner this question comes to relevance. Does it mean he would suffer in the mayoral primary? I don't know. It is a possibile but not likely.

What is more likely though is that it would end any further electoral ambition Peters may desire. Basically it would make him go the path of Paul Helmke (excluding his new position) and we all know how that turned out.

Fall Pundies 2006

1. Most Likely to Get Mike Sylvester's vote for Congress -Josh Jennings
2. Least Likely - Do I actually need to print this answer?
3. Sleeper Race - County Council District One
4. Best Republican Candidate not to Win - Matt Schaumberg
5. Best Democrat Candidate not to Win - Herb Summers
6. Biggest warchest for a future campaign- Tina Taviano
7. Longest Campaign - Ken Fries
8. Best Run Campaign - Ken Fries
9. Worst Campaign - (Tie) Miller & Cline
10. Best Use of a Beattles Theme - Pat Love
11. Best Use of traditional medium in local election coverage - Wane 15
12. Biggest Right Winged Political Hack (as nominated by Kevin Knuth) - Mitch Harper
13. Worst Timing for a campaign mishap - Kevin Howell
14. Best Commercial - John McGauley
15. Worst Commercial - Tom Hayhurst
16. Miss Congeniality - Herb Summers
17. Best imitation of live cattle in a commercial- Tina Taviano
18. Worst Imitation of a farmer in a commercial - Tina Taviano
19. Best use of farm equipment in a campaign - Marlin Stutzman
20. Least objective political anaylist on local TV - Brian Stier
21. Most objective political analyst on local TV -Marla Irving
22. Most cries of Foul play in an election cycle - Kevin Knuth
23. Least Likely to see over the podium - Stacey Lopshire
24. Most Likely to provide props for the above mentioned Pundie - Steve Shine
25. Deepest Comment made by a candidate - Robert Enders
26. Worst Kept secrets for GOP - Kelty & Peters for Mayor
27. Worst Kept secrets for Democrats - Hayhurst for Mayor
28. Best Exit strategy from office - Graham Richard
29. Worst use of a muskrat - Pat Bauer
30. Longest List of bests and worsts in an election cycle - Indiana Pundit

Lets Help Out Our Candidates

Several sites have noted that there are a lot of yard signs to be picked up. Lets help candidates pick them up.

Just comment with the campaign name and location of the sign.

There is no Down Time

The 2006 General election was only a few days ago. Yet there are now two candidates ready to do battle for their party in the next primary. As expected Matt Kelty formally announced his candidacy for FW mayor on Wednesday. Next Thursday Nelson Peters will do the same.

I gotta feeling this may get ugly for the Republican party. Stay tuned as this story progresses.

2006 Fall Pundies Coming to a Blog Near You

Look for the Fall Pundies to come out next week. You won't want to miss them. If you don't know what the Pundie Awards are check out the 2006 Spring Pundies

How Clear Was my Crystal Ball

Overall though, my record was pretty good this fall I predicted 13 of 14 races.

There were other races that I did commentary on before the election but didn't do the numbers breakout. Here's how I did on those. (Each one is a link to its pre-election analysis).

US Senate
Lugar vs Osborn
Pick: Lugar
Winner: Lugar

Secretary of State
Rokita vs Pearson vs Kole
Pick: Rokita
Winner Rokita

State Auditor
Berry vs Anderson
Pick: Berry
Winner: Berry

State Treasurer
Murdock vs Griffin
Pick: Mourdock
Winner: Mourdock

Congress 6th District
Pence vs Welsh
Pick:Pence
Winner: Pence

Indiana House 84
Borror vs Wehrle
Pick: Borror
Winner: Borror

Congress 3 Analysis

Prediction (Allen County only)
Souder............... 33,000..... 59%
Hayhurst.................. 23000 ......41%

Actual
Souder......... 41901..... 50%
Hayhurst........... 41163 ......50%

District Total (This is last nights number with 96% reported)
Souder............... 90865..... 55%
Hayhurst........... 75481 ......45%

I was off by the most of any race with this one. It illustrates Souder's vulnerability and the Democrats GOTV efforts in Allen county. It also illustrates how weak Democrats are in the rest of this Congressional District.

This was probably the best a Democratic candidate can do in this district. Click here to read my pre-election analysis on what Hayhurst needed to do to win.

Senate 15 Analysis

Prediction
Wyss .................13,500.... 66%
Bynum .......................7000..... 34%

Actual
Wyss ......................16379.... 57%
Bynum ...........................12417..... 43%

This is another race I will have to take a further look at because Wyss's numbers didn't rise like most other Republican candidates. I don't know whether this is a case of voter apathy towards a candidate or a strong showing by his opposition. Click here for pre-election analysis.

My sources at last night's post-election party at Republican HQ say that he also announced that this would be his last term before he retires.

State House 80 Analysis

Prediction
Howell.................... 3000.... 42%
GiaQuinta........ ..4000... 55%
Enders.......................200.......3%

Actual
Howell.................... 2819.... 32%
GiaQuinta........ ..5777... 64%
Enders.......................332.......4%

I think this was a combination of several factors. First, Howell was a 3-time candidate for this seat. The old saying "3rd time is a charm" doesn't apply in politics. More often than not a 3-time candidate loses steam as there are fewer undecided voterss at the beginning of the campaign. Second, the robo-call issue may have played a factor but that is speculative. Finally, the most probable culprit was the Democrat push in Wayne township. Click here for pre-election analysis of this race.

County Council 4 Analysis

Prediction
Miller ...................10500 ..70%
Cline .........................4500... 30%

Actual
Miller ...................13497 ..62%
Cline .........................8418... 38%

At first glance it would appear that I did the same thing in the Recorder's prediction. That's not the case though. Cline's numbers matched turnout in other races in the same area. Miller's did not. It appears that Republicans who turned out for the other races didn't do so for Miller. Whether this is a statement about Miller or the uninspiring campaigning done by both candidates remains to be seen. Click here for pre-election analysis.

I'll have to compare the numbers for Sam Talarico in next year's city council race to find the answers to that question. I expect Talarico's numbers in the aboite area to match Miller's. Should Miller's be worse than Talarico's then it was the race. Should both underperform then the lower percentage is attributed to the candidate. Stay tuned as I will look at this race again after the FW municipal primary.

County Council 1 Analysis

Prediction
Ball .........................5800.. 60%
Johnson ...................3800... 40%

Actual
Ball ....................................7057.. 46%
Johnson ...................8376... 54%

This is the only race I didn't predict the winner though I did say that this was the Democrats best chance for a victory. Click here for pre-election analysis

After looking at the rest of the Wayne Township races it is obvious what happened in this race. Democrats were able to maximize their GOTV on Fort Wayne's south side. This is where their party's base is most concentrated. On the flip side a significant portion of this council district is in the Pence Congressional District. That race wasn't nearly as competitive as the Souder/ Hayhurst fight. This resulted in the GOP base in that area to not be nearly as energized as found in the 3rd Congressionl district.

Should a rematch occur I would probably still go with Ball based on how a typical turnout goes in that district. The turnout in Wayne township was atypical.

Recorder Analysis

Prediction
McGauley ............37500.. 67%
Summers ................18500... 33%

Actual
McGauley ............49911.. 61%
Summers ................32483... 39%

My prediction was off by 6%. I think this is because I second-guessed myself when making the original prediction. Originally I thought that this and the assessor's race would be dead even but instead came out with this. On the bright side at least I got the winner right. Click here for pre-election analysis.

Assessor's Analysis

Prediction
Lopshire ..............33600 ..60%
Love ........................22400 ...40%

Actual
Lopshire ..............50842 ..60%
Love ........................33208...40%

Again the turnout was off but the percentage was exact. Click here for pre-election analysis.

Sheriff's Race Analysis

Prediction
Fries .....................33000 ....55%
Taviano .......................22000 .....37%
Smith .............................5000 .......8%

Actual
Fries .....................48344 ....55%
Taviano .......................33782.....39%
Smith .............................4880 .......6%

The turnout was higher than calculated. But you can't get much closer a prediction than this. Click here for pre-election analysis.

Prediction Updates

I will go through my predictions and reconcile them with poll results. I'll start with those races that were contained entirely in Allen County. I'll do the rest as I am able to break down how multi-county candidates did in Allen County.

Poll Observations

This is what I have observed in doing my civic duty and making the roll around precincts. Turnout appears to be low (though Channel 15 claims it isn't).

Poll workers have seen an unusual amount of youth turnout at some precincts. This must be a qualified statement though as a lot of these poll workers are elderly and consider anybody under 40 to be the youth vote. I don't know what to make of it at this point.

UPDATE 3:10PM
Turnout does appear to be high in most places. It will be interesting to see who's base the push is coming from. Is it for the Democrat candidate's? If so will it be enough? Or have recent comments by the Democratic leadership pushed the GOP out to vote?

We'll know in a few hours.

Weather Report

Well, its cold and wet outside. a prescription for low voter turnout. Historically this hurts Democrats more than Republicans. But we'll have to wait until tonight to see if that holds true.

My Last Post on Yard Signs (this election)

I am preparing to go to bed, planning to be up tomorrow at 3am to put up yard signs at various polling places for my favorite candidates (who will remain anonymous). Over the years I have noticed that yard sign etiquette has not been followed by many campaigns including some of the current ones on both sides or the parity.

Here are the most common issues I have noticed (some of which are illegal, as if that stops some people):

• Sandwiching/ Blocking opponent's signs. This is where one candidate's signs obscure that of another by placing signs within inches of the opposition.
• Stealing/ Mutilating/ Defacing signs. This need not be described.
• Too many signs. The best ratio is 2 signs per entrance to the parking lot of the and 2 for the entrance to the building. Any more than that is seen as overbearing.
• Within the chute. Signs are not allowed to be within 50 feet of the chute/ entrance to the polling location.

The main thing for campaigns to remember is the impression that these tactics leave the voters as they enter the polls.

Do you want them to summarize a year's worth of campaigning as childish, amatuerish, vindictive, and unethical?

I didn't think so.

General Thoughts on the Routine of Voting

Tomorrow is a time when many of us go to the polls to determine the direction of our country, state, and local community. But how often do we go through this like it is a routine. How often do we give contemplation to the act we are about commit. So often we as Americans take for granted our right to vote. I like the approach Robert Enders takes. Here is a quote from his latest post at his blog.

"Every election, I walk to the polls, no matter what the weather is like. It has become a tradition for me. When I walk by myself to the polls, I am one man with one vote. They can take my house and my car, but I will always have the right to vote."

Pat Love Mailer

There are so many things I could say about the content of this mailer. But its Friday and I have better things to do. Instead I will let my readers assess the assessor's mailer.

Cal Miller Endorses Pat Love

At least that's what Pat Love says on her new mailer.

"....Love's office rolled up their sleeves and did a really admirable job." as attributed to Cal Miller from the JG May 2, 2004

This probably won't have any underlying effects to next Tuesday's elections. But it could cost Cal some political capital in the future.

Analysis of a Last-Week Mailer

The Indiana Democratic State Committee issued a full page postcard on behalf of their candidate for state auditor Judy Anderson. When I first saw the piece I thought it had been done by a rookie candidate. It was full of strategical errors. When I noticed it was paid for by the IDSC I was even more shocked.

Here are the errors I found on this piece.

• If you only do one mailing it cannot have a negative tone. I'm not talking about negative campaigning but a pessimistic tone. The tone of the last mailer determines the tone for which reader's associate with the candidate on election day.
  
• If you only do one mailing it should be about the candidate benefited by the mailer. Having your opponent on the mailer is a distraction from the intended focus.
  
• Additionally to this piece Tim Berry's face and name are at the top left of the piece. That's the first thing voters see when they pick up the mailer and the only thing they pick up should they not read it.
  
• It took a few seconds to figure out who this mailer was for because the top headers are of equal typeface giving the names of both candidates equal billing.
  
• Most importantly, know who your audience is and know what messages will work. While the major moves deal is not popular with Democrats, it is not nearly as such with the rest of voters as recent polling suggests.

In summary, this mailer spent more time focusing on things beyond the control of the candidate and less time focusing on how the candidate can be a positive influence/ contributor as an elected official. I will probably be called a right-winged hack for this post, but my analysis would be no different if this mailer were done by the Republican party.

By the Numbers

This week fellow blogger and political junkie Credo at Fort Wayne African-American Independent Woman has her own set of predictions for next week's elections. She even has her best guess at what the turnout will be. I found that some of her predictions were logical and within range but others showed her unfamiliarity with aspects of certain races. I recommend you check them out along with her commentary about each of the races she covered.

Several readers have challenged me to add my 2-cents worth as far as turnout in my predictions. They told me my predictions were too vague and that any 2nd grader could do the job I did. I actually think a 1st grader could do them.

I think turnout will be lower than the last off-year election (2002). Please keep in mind that all these are guesses and no political scientists were harmed in the effort to bring you this entertainment.

Souder......... 33,000..... 59%
Hayhurst........... 23000 ......41%

Wyss .................13,500.... 66%
Bynum ...................7000..... 34%

Howell.................... 3000.... 42%
GiaQuinta........ ..4000... 55%
Enders.......................200.......3%

Ball .........................5800.. 60%
Johnson ...................3800... 40%

Miller ...................10500 ..70%
Cline .........................4500... 30%

McGauley ............37500.. 67%
Summers ................18500... 33%

Lopshire ..............33600 ..60%
Love ........................22400 ...40%

Fries .....................33000 ....55%
Taviano .................22000 .....37%
Smith .......................5000 .......8%