Fries vs Taviano vs Smith - County Sheriff
This has been one of the more active campaigns in this election cycle. It has also been one of the more interesting. All the candidates have had some good ideas as far as what they would do in office.
But this race will be decided by 2 factors. The first factor is this is a predominantly Republican district by a ratio of 2 to 1. The second factor is that there are 3 candidates.
PJ Smith really has no chance in this race no matter what kind of ideas he might bring to the table. But his presence on the ticket brings the question as to which candidate will he steal votes from and will it be enough to make a difference.
Best estimates based on how 3rd party candidates do in countywide races in the past suggest he will take around 2-5% of the vote. After watching the debate between all three candidates I found it interesting how closely Smith's views are to that of Taviano. Smith will more than likely take votes from Taviano because of that.
Pick: Fries
But this race will be decided by 2 factors. The first factor is this is a predominantly Republican district by a ratio of 2 to 1. The second factor is that there are 3 candidates.
PJ Smith really has no chance in this race no matter what kind of ideas he might bring to the table. But his presence on the ticket brings the question as to which candidate will he steal votes from and will it be enough to make a difference.
Best estimates based on how 3rd party candidates do in countywide races in the past suggest he will take around 2-5% of the vote. After watching the debate between all three candidates I found it interesting how closely Smith's views are to that of Taviano. Smith will more than likely take votes from Taviano because of that.
Pick: Fries
posted by Indiana Pundit at 2:07 PM
2 Comments:
Fries rocks!
Two things I find interesting in your commentary:
1. That although you rate Smith low on the probability of winning 2/3 of your comments are directed towards him being in the race.
2. You state that Smith's views are close to Taviano's, but the case could be made that her thoughts actually echo his. Your bias towards a two party system shows in your comments. This is also betrayed when you refer to Smith as 'stealing' votes. It seems that this type of thinking is exactly what he is fighting against coming into this race.
For a candidate that has spent less on his campaign than the other two will spend on either their victory celebration or consulation party speaks volumes for what is wrong with "politics as usual" in Allen County.
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