County Council 1 Analysis
Prediction
Ball .........................5800.. 60%
Johnson ...................3800... 40%
Actual
Ball ....................................7057.. 46%
Johnson ...................8376... 54%
This is the only race I didn't predict the winner though I did say that this was the Democrats best chance for a victory. Click here for pre-election analysis
After looking at the rest of the Wayne Township races it is obvious what happened in this race. Democrats were able to maximize their GOTV on Fort Wayne's south side. This is where their party's base is most concentrated. On the flip side a significant portion of this council district is in the Pence Congressional District. That race wasn't nearly as competitive as the Souder/ Hayhurst fight. This resulted in the GOP base in that area to not be nearly as energized as found in the 3rd Congressionl district.
Should a rematch occur I would probably still go with Ball based on how a typical turnout goes in that district. The turnout in Wayne township was atypical.
Ball .........................5800.. 60%
Johnson ...................3800... 40%
Actual
Ball ....................................7057.. 46%
Johnson ...................8376... 54%
This is the only race I didn't predict the winner though I did say that this was the Democrats best chance for a victory. Click here for pre-election analysis
After looking at the rest of the Wayne Township races it is obvious what happened in this race. Democrats were able to maximize their GOTV on Fort Wayne's south side. This is where their party's base is most concentrated. On the flip side a significant portion of this council district is in the Pence Congressional District. That race wasn't nearly as competitive as the Souder/ Hayhurst fight. This resulted in the GOP base in that area to not be nearly as energized as found in the 3rd Congressionl district.
Should a rematch occur I would probably still go with Ball based on how a typical turnout goes in that district. The turnout in Wayne township was atypical.
posted by Indiana Pundit at 12:09 AM
1 Comments:
I would only expect the Allen County Democratic Party's GOTV effort to get better in time. While these numbers may seem atypical now, I think they will begin to be more of a norm...
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