Indiana Pundit


Tuesday, June 19, 2007

Kelty & the GOP

Today is the day . Democrats are giddy as a child on Christmas Day (some Republicans included). The press are vulturing for a major story. Kelty's group is cautiously confident that things will go their way.

That is as far as I will venture into the subject of today's Election Board Meeting. Why? Because it has been covered to death in the local blogosphere. This is a story about what the GOP needs to see from this thing.

Should Nelson Peters or Randy Borror be on the ballot there will be problems (Mr Borror has been throwing hints he would like to be on the ballot to replace Kelty). Neither man is considered viable at this point in the race.

Mr Peters is considered damaged goods for this race as the loser in the primary. Should the party put him back on the ballot many voters will see that as a backdoor tactic by the party. There is a large contingent of voters that see parallels between the local GOP and the problems in Washington DC. That said, he doesn't have the ability beat Henry at this point.

Mr Borror has never run a contested race versus a viable candidate. He has 3% name ID among voters. His strength is fundraising not campaigning. Henry would defeat Borror handily.

As far as the other races this November only Schmidt, Smith, and Harper will pull out victories without a strong lead ticket. The problems for the GOP are not nearly as short term as this municipal election. They have a perception problem with their own base that will spill over into a presidential year. The only way to combat that perception is for them to energize their base with a strong campaign in the mayor's race. Otherwise Governor Daniels and Congressman Souder are vulnerable.

Mitch Daniels needs an energized turnout in Allen County to counter Democratic hot-spots such as St Joe County, Lake County, and Marion County. He can't afford any hiccups in turnouts of his base here.

While Daniels needs an energized race (not necessarily Kelty) Souder needs Kelty to be the candidate. Kelty's base is a sub-base of Souder's Allen County support. Souder lost Fort Wayne to Hayhurst by 6% in 2006. Recent polling suggests that he has lost approximately 15 to 20% of his base due to a combination of his term limit pledge and involvement in this primary. If Kelty's base gets disenfranchised then Souder could lose.

Basically, the Republican party needs a strong campaign in this cycle for success next year. Their only shot at that is Kelty. They need this issue to go away quickly not for Kelty's sake but for their own chances at success in future cycles.

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Anonymous Anonymous said...

But Liz Brown, Mitch Harper and Bob Morris took money from Rost too.

What does that do to them?

8:54 PM  
Blogger Indiana Pundit said...

I have a good idea who this commenter is based on their own comments and attempts at getting the press to take the bait.

This has been researched and I can report that there were no such loans made by Rost to these candidates.

I also want to warn this commenter that they need to be more careful when making these accusations as it can put them in legal trouble again.

10:51 AM  

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