Kelty & the GOP

Today is the day . Democrats are giddy as a child on Christmas Day (some Republicans included). The press are vulturing for a major story. Kelty's group is cautiously confident that things will go their way.

That is as far as I will venture into the subject of today's Election Board Meeting. Why? Because it has been covered to death in the local blogosphere. This is a story about what the GOP needs to see from this thing.

Should Nelson Peters or Randy Borror be on the ballot there will be problems (Mr Borror has been throwing hints he would like to be on the ballot to replace Kelty). Neither man is considered viable at this point in the race.

Mr Peters is considered damaged goods for this race as the loser in the primary. Should the party put him back on the ballot many voters will see that as a backdoor tactic by the party. There is a large contingent of voters that see parallels between the local GOP and the problems in Washington DC. That said, he doesn't have the ability beat Henry at this point.

Mr Borror has never run a contested race versus a viable candidate. He has 3% name ID among voters. His strength is fundraising not campaigning. Henry would defeat Borror handily.

As far as the other races this November only Schmidt, Smith, and Harper will pull out victories without a strong lead ticket. The problems for the GOP are not nearly as short term as this municipal election. They have a perception problem with their own base that will spill over into a presidential year. The only way to combat that perception is for them to energize their base with a strong campaign in the mayor's race. Otherwise Governor Daniels and Congressman Souder are vulnerable.

Mitch Daniels needs an energized turnout in Allen County to counter Democratic hot-spots such as St Joe County, Lake County, and Marion County. He can't afford any hiccups in turnouts of his base here.

While Daniels needs an energized race (not necessarily Kelty) Souder needs Kelty to be the candidate. Kelty's base is a sub-base of Souder's Allen County support. Souder lost Fort Wayne to Hayhurst by 6% in 2006. Recent polling suggests that he has lost approximately 15 to 20% of his base due to a combination of his term limit pledge and involvement in this primary. If Kelty's base gets disenfranchised then Souder could lose.

Basically, the Republican party needs a strong campaign in this cycle for success next year. Their only shot at that is Kelty. They need this issue to go away quickly not for Kelty's sake but for their own chances at success in future cycles.

Prediction: Mayoral Races

New Haven
Byrd got the kiss of death endorsement for Republican candidates. The newspaper endorsed Byrd based on McDonald being the more vocal opponent of county consolidation. Most New Haven residents are closer to being in line with McDonald on that issue.

Prediction: McDonald

Fort Wayne
On the Democratic ticket there is no debate. Henry is the only viable choice on the ticket.

Prediction: Henry

The Republican ticket for Mayor is the main event for the Allen county primary and most arguably in the state of Indiana. In this race Peters started with a large head start being the county commissioner. Area pundits (other than me) say that Kelty has out-worked Peters, that he has the momentum and that the experience factor isn't motivating people to the polls. People are being motivated by Harrison Square and the smoking ordinance.

Prediction: Kelty

Due Diligence

No, this isn't another Harrison Square story.

Its a story about a man named Jed I mean Jeff and a guy named Pat. Jeff Neumeyer thought he had a scandal story on Matt Kelty when Kelty's campaign website claimed him to be a former walk-on at Notre Dame. Jeff went so far as to check the roster during the Jerry Faust years. He didn't find Kelty's name on those rosters.

Well, anybody who has seen the movie Rudy knows that there are those who never appear on the roster who are considered part of the team. Jeff's mistake was at this point in his research. Rather than check a second source to be sure, he reported without verifying his facts. Thats a big no-no in journalism.

But as big a goof as this is for Jeff Neumeyer and Indiana News Center, its a bigger black eye for Pat White. Pat made a bigger deal about it than Jeff did but didn't do any pretence of investigation.

Though the story sounds incredulous at first, Coach Faust called into WOWO this morning to confirm that Kelty was a walk-on punter for the team. My sources at the radio station say they have been inundated with calls and emails asking for a retraction by Pat White.

At Ten Paces Turn and Fire

These billboards are back to back on the same billboard structure at the corner of Broadway and Taylor Streets near General Electric. Its a duel to the finish.

Harrison Square by the Numbers

54% of Residents in Recent Poll are Opposed, Nearly 76% Against the Ballpark and Public Financing of Project

Fort Wayne, IN., April 5, 2007 – Conservative Republican mayoral candidate Matt Kelty today released the results of a recent poll showing a majority of Fort Wayne residents are opposed to the Harrison Square project as proposed by City officials. Kelty supports a market-driven approach to downtown redevelopment, his opponent in the May primary, Nelson Peters, supports the city’s government-driven plan for Harrison Square.

"The results of the poll are consistent with, my position on the project, and with what I am hearing from voters at neighborhood association meetings, neighborhood walks, and meetings around the city", said Kelty. "Though I am for redeveloping the downtown, from the information provided so far, I just don’t think the ballpark and public financing parts of the project make economic sense for the citizens of Fort Wayne", remarked the candidate.

The random poll of likely Fort Wayne voters was conducted between 27-29 Mar 07 by Zogby International. The margin of error of the poll is +/-5%. Nearly 9,000 Fort Wayne residents were contacted and participants were asked the following questions:

Q: Do you support or oppose the Harrison Square downtown development as proposed by the City of Fort Wayne?

	Support	Oppose	Not Sure
All	31.6%	54.0%	14.5%
Men	29.8%	56.9%	13.3%
Women	33.2%	51.3%	15.5%
Democrats	49.3%	36.7%	13.9%
Rebublicans	31.3%	53.1%	15.5%
Independents	18.8%	69.4%	11.7%

Q: Whether or not you support or oppose the project as a whole, which one of the following parts of the City’s proposed Harrison Square project are you most opposed to?

	Ballpark	Condos	Hotel	Parking Garage	Public Financing	Retail Space	Not Sure
All	57.3%	4.5%	1.4%	1.5%	18.4%	2.5%	14.4%
Men	53.2%	3.1%	0.7%	0.5%	22.6%	2.3%	17.6%
Women	61.0%	5.8%	2.1%	2.3%	14.6%	2.7%	11.5%
Democrats	58.9%	6.1%	0.0%	1.4%	13.4%	5.2%	15.0%
Rebublicans	55.2%	5.0%	1.7%	1.3%	20.4%	2.3%	14.1%
Independents	62.9%	1.7%	1.7%	2.0%	15.2%	1.2%	15.3%

"The fate of this project is in the hands of City Council, as Mayor I, like everyone else, will have to live with any decision they make, and I won’t be able to undo it", said Kelty. "What I can do though, is make sure the people are heard on this issue, and hope the City Council is listening."
According to City administration officials, the City’s proposal for the Harrison Square project is scheduled to be presented to the Fort Wayne City Council for a vote this month. In the mayor’s own plan (Link), in the Hardball Capital aspect of the Harrison Square deal, the City will be putting up $54M of taxpayer funding to Hardball’s $23M for the Harrison Square development.

"Notwithstanding the fact we already have a publicly funded ballpark, I am having a difficult time understanding how paying Hardball Capital $2.35 of taxpayer dollars for every $1.00 of private investment is a good deal for the City of Fort Wayne", said Kelty. "Proponents of the project will ask me if not this, then what? If given the kind of time the administration and City Council has had to develop this project, I know I could come up with some better alternatives, but I’m not going to make a snap decision now, that’s what’s got us into this mess to begin with. It’s not about taking a risk or making a decision; it’s about taking a manageable risk and making a correct decision. The two choices are not the same; the second choice takes into account the public interest, and requires good judgment."


My own comments on this in a later post

Website Review - Matt Kelty

People should be able to communicate with the campaign through the website
This website does a good job of communicating with voters. It has one aspect I haven't seen in the other websites. It has a ticker on the left column that runs letters to the editor that support his position on issues. It also has a link to his Myspace page.

The campaign must be able to show who the candidate is (not just their name)
It includes a normal bio piece. He even included pictoral references to his topics. Normally these wouldn't earn a reference in my reviews. But normally a candidate doesn't use a picture of themself with Dick Lugar to illustrate a professional relationship with a very popular elected official.

The campaign must express its platform/ issue positions. This is the most important purpose of the website
His issues are well-defined.

It must be easy to navigate.
The site is well designed for navigation.

Design should be clean and coherent to the branding plan of the campaign.
The branding here is interesting. He's trying to establish his campaign in the fashion of Ronald Reagan with his "City on the Hill" reference in his logo.

GRADE A-

http://www.mattkelty.com/