The Over Under

The title suggests that the content of this post would fit in with Melissa Long, Tracy Warner, and their desire to have a casino downtown. Sorry to disappoint. This post is about the under vote.

The under vote is a calculation of the difference between the top of the ticket and other candidates/ races on the same ballot. It gauges the effectiveness of candidates and their campaigns.

Historically, the under vote in FW municipal elections is between 4 and 5%. In 2003 and 2007 it was 2.5% and 2.0% respectively.

In the case of the 2007 election, the under vote tells us that the Kelty fiasco didn't keep people away from the polls. It just kept them away from the mayor's race.

Prediction: Mayoral Races

New Haven
Byrd got the kiss of death endorsement for Republican candidates. The newspaper endorsed Byrd based on McDonald being the more vocal opponent of county consolidation. Most New Haven residents are closer to being in line with McDonald on that issue.

Prediction: McDonald

Fort Wayne
On the Democratic ticket there is no debate. Henry is the only viable choice on the ticket.

Prediction: Henry

The Republican ticket for Mayor is the main event for the Allen county primary and most arguably in the state of Indiana. In this race Peters started with a large head start being the county commissioner. Area pundits (other than me) say that Kelty has out-worked Peters, that he has the momentum and that the experience factor isn't motivating people to the polls. People are being motivated by Harrison Square and the smoking ordinance.

Prediction: Kelty