Democrats to select Bynum

Mike Bynum was the only person to put forth a desire to become the next Allen County chairman. Good luck to Mr Bynum as I'm sure he'll do a fine job.

The story about this particular process is interesting. While it is normal for nobody to contest the incumbancy of a popular chairman, it is atypical for an open seat to not be a contested race.

So why is there so little interest among Democrats in Indiana's second largest county to become their party chair?

The Meaning of Life ... Er Iowa

How do the Iowa results affect the local political landscape?

First off, the field of candidates in either party will be down to only two or three viable candidates.

Secondly, the Democratic party's primary should receive a boost in turnout. The Obama - Clinton fight should still be in full stride come May.

Finally, don't necessarily expect yesterday's leaders to be in front in May. Later in the month Michigan and Florida hold their primaries. The electoral importance of those two states should give us a good idea of how things will shake out.

Basically, a lot can happen between now and primary election day.

Journal Gazette Doesn't Know Politics

Much has been said about the lack of fact checking in today's Political Notebook (see FWOB). Ben and the Journal don't seem to have an understanding of local politics either.

It is not uncommon for Democrats to have an uncontested ticket in the primary. When this happens some party members will vote in the Republican primary to try and influence their primary. The best example of this was in 2002 when Helmke took on Souder.

Karen Goldner wasn't alone in crossing lines in 2002. Several thousand local Democrats crossed party lines to vote in this race (including some notable figures connected with the Richards-Henry administrations).

Today's Political Notebook just emphasizes that the newspaper's competency in political matters is questionable. But what should we expect, Ben has only been voting locally since 2004 and wouldn't have the institutional knowledge to cover anything from this community before Bush's second term.

The Over Under

The title suggests that the content of this post would fit in with Melissa Long, Tracy Warner, and their desire to have a casino downtown. Sorry to disappoint. This post is about the under vote.

The under vote is a calculation of the difference between the top of the ticket and other candidates/ races on the same ballot. It gauges the effectiveness of candidates and their campaigns.

Historically, the under vote in FW municipal elections is between 4 and 5%. In 2003 and 2007 it was 2.5% and 2.0% respectively.

In the case of the 2007 election, the under vote tells us that the Kelty fiasco didn't keep people away from the polls. It just kept them away from the mayor's race.

End of an Era

As this week ends so does that of the marathon tenure of FW city councilman Don Schmidt. Last night he gave an interview of retrospect covering his terms of service, and his last campaign. It shed light as to why he lost his race.

He said that this would have been his last election and that he had contemplated not even running this year. He thought that the Kelty debacle might have caused him to lose the twelve votes he needed to beat Karen Goldner. When you talk about a margin such as this there usually isn't just one thing to point to as to that can point to and say "this is why I lost".

The Kelty problems didn't affect candidates as much as one would think. It appears that the overall undervote was smaller than normal (more on this in a later post). The smoking ban might have hurt Schmidt a little but was offset by his Harrison Square stance. I think the deciding factor was passion. From what I observed Karen worked harder in her campaign than Don did.

Is Anybody Home?

The answer to that question is "Yes". Early reports of my demise have been greatly exaggerated.

Look for more posts over the holidays.

Merry Christmas to All.

Kelty & the GOP

Today is the day . Democrats are giddy as a child on Christmas Day (some Republicans included). The press are vulturing for a major story. Kelty's group is cautiously confident that things will go their way.

That is as far as I will venture into the subject of today's Election Board Meeting. Why? Because it has been covered to death in the local blogosphere. This is a story about what the GOP needs to see from this thing.

Should Nelson Peters or Randy Borror be on the ballot there will be problems (Mr Borror has been throwing hints he would like to be on the ballot to replace Kelty). Neither man is considered viable at this point in the race.

Mr Peters is considered damaged goods for this race as the loser in the primary. Should the party put him back on the ballot many voters will see that as a backdoor tactic by the party. There is a large contingent of voters that see parallels between the local GOP and the problems in Washington DC. That said, he doesn't have the ability beat Henry at this point.

Mr Borror has never run a contested race versus a viable candidate. He has 3% name ID among voters. His strength is fundraising not campaigning. Henry would defeat Borror handily.

As far as the other races this November only Schmidt, Smith, and Harper will pull out victories without a strong lead ticket. The problems for the GOP are not nearly as short term as this municipal election. They have a perception problem with their own base that will spill over into a presidential year. The only way to combat that perception is for them to energize their base with a strong campaign in the mayor's race. Otherwise Governor Daniels and Congressman Souder are vulnerable.

Mitch Daniels needs an energized turnout in Allen County to counter Democratic hot-spots such as St Joe County, Lake County, and Marion County. He can't afford any hiccups in turnouts of his base here.

While Daniels needs an energized race (not necessarily Kelty) Souder needs Kelty to be the candidate. Kelty's base is a sub-base of Souder's Allen County support. Souder lost Fort Wayne to Hayhurst by 6% in 2006. Recent polling suggests that he has lost approximately 15 to 20% of his base due to a combination of his term limit pledge and involvement in this primary. If Kelty's base gets disenfranchised then Souder could lose.

Basically, the Republican party needs a strong campaign in this cycle for success next year. Their only shot at that is Kelty. They need this issue to go away quickly not for Kelty's sake but for their own chances at success in future cycles.