General Election Predictions
I know its a long way out to November. But there are currently 5 contested races. Here is my predictions for those (I'll add more as they come out).
3rd Congressional District
Souder vs Hayhurst
Souder isn't the strongest incumbent in the county but then again he doesn't need to be. Hayhurst has been a popular city councilman. In the end Hayhurst can't prove there is an overwhelming character-flaw in Souder that should require his removal from the position.
Souder wins 61% - 39%.
Indiana House of Representatives District 80
Howell vs GiaQuinta
This will be Howell's 3rd attempt at the office. He's a nice guy but isn't aggressive enough to win voters over to him.
GiaQuinta wins 62% - 38%.
Allen County Recorder
McGauley vs Summers
Summers faces problems in this one as even his own family are backing his challenger.
McGauley wins 66% - 34%.
Allen County Sheriff
Fries vs Taviano
The last time there was a contested race it was close. It will be tighter than the rest of the races I am predicting in this post but not as tight as Herman vs Zamora. Fries doesn't have the negatives that Herman did. I don't care what Brian Stier said about this race.
Fries wins 59% - 41%.
Allen County Assessor
Lopshire vs Love
Many Democrats will argue that Love isn't as weak as I will presently state. But the truth is she didn't win the election in 2002. Mike Ternet lost the race. There is a difference. Add that to the tax reassessments, whether her fault or not she is associated with property tax increases as the incumbent. She is also vulnverable on the assessor certification test issue.
Lopshire wins with 65% - 35%.
Note: All percentages are for Allen County totals only and have a +/- of 3%
3rd Congressional District
Souder vs Hayhurst
Souder isn't the strongest incumbent in the county but then again he doesn't need to be. Hayhurst has been a popular city councilman. In the end Hayhurst can't prove there is an overwhelming character-flaw in Souder that should require his removal from the position.
Souder wins 61% - 39%.
Indiana House of Representatives District 80
Howell vs GiaQuinta
This will be Howell's 3rd attempt at the office. He's a nice guy but isn't aggressive enough to win voters over to him.
GiaQuinta wins 62% - 38%.
Allen County Recorder
McGauley vs Summers
Summers faces problems in this one as even his own family are backing his challenger.
McGauley wins 66% - 34%.
Allen County Sheriff
Fries vs Taviano
The last time there was a contested race it was close. It will be tighter than the rest of the races I am predicting in this post but not as tight as Herman vs Zamora. Fries doesn't have the negatives that Herman did. I don't care what Brian Stier said about this race.
Fries wins 59% - 41%.
Allen County Assessor
Lopshire vs Love
Many Democrats will argue that Love isn't as weak as I will presently state. But the truth is she didn't win the election in 2002. Mike Ternet lost the race. There is a difference. Add that to the tax reassessments, whether her fault or not she is associated with property tax increases as the incumbent. She is also vulnverable on the assessor certification test issue.
Lopshire wins with 65% - 35%.
Note: All percentages are for Allen County totals only and have a +/- of 3%
posted by Indiana Pundit at 2:52 PM
15 Comments:
I think the Souder race will be closer than you predict. People won't forget his term limit comments and that alone will drive voters away from him.
For the term limit issue to make any difference in the Souder race it would need to resonate with his Republican base.
I don't see a significant portion of his base getting fired up enough to vote for his opponent. This issue will only affect 5% of his base at best.
Word on the street is that Pat Love has signed up for the next TWO assessor certification tests.
Try, try, try again. You have to admire her persistence.
But isn't the definition of neuroses doing the same thing over and over with no change in result?
While you are most likely right about a McGgauley win, it is only fair to point out that Summers' family members are all die hard Repbulicans and would not support a Democrat in any circumstance.
In any case you are brave to venture out this early....campaigns are full of twists and turns and even surprises.
I would keep an eye on the Sheriff and perhaps even Congress as November nears.
Gee, Anon.-
There really aren't that many other races to keep an eye on. Demos have no one on the ballot for U.S. Senator; they don't have even one candidate for any of the statewide races for Secretary of State, Treasurer and Auditor, and no one for County Commissioner, Prosecutor, Auditor, Clerk and so on down through the township level.
Knuth can't even find people who will touch a Democrat nomination for most of these offices. Surprisingly, he is not looking for anyone for most of these offices. It's the loser party in November already.
Anonymous (the second one)- You are showing you know little about politics-
"they don't have even one candidate for any of the statewide races for Secretary of State, Treasurer and Auditor..."
Those positions are decided at the State Convention in June.
Knuth said on the news that they have some interest in Commissioner and already have an Auditor candidate.
Why can't the MIGHT ACRP field someone against Win Moses?
Fries is,by far, the best candidate for Sheriff. He has been an exemplary officer, has good business sense, and has solid support from the officers he will lead. For 24 years he has demonstrated leadership, experience, and integrity. He has been dedicated to making this county safer. At the same time, he has solid family values.
moses is relieved to see kelty run for mayor.
Dear anonymous (the third one aka Knuth)
I'm very well aware the Democrats nominate their statewide candidates in June. The fact is, NO ONE has declared. Not even one Democrat has stepped forward.
See, this might surprise you, since you are obviously such an astute political genius, but potential Republican candidates for statewide offices usually make their intentions known in the year before the election.
The Republicans then travel around the state, talking to party officials, going to winter and spring Lincoln Day Dinners, and visiting with editors and reporters at various newspapers.
Usually, there are several candidates who fight it out at the convention. This year, for the first time in eons, the Republican state ticket has been solidified for some time. Oh, it's geographically balanced, too.
Fort Wayne's Tim Berry will be the Republican candidate for Auditor. Evansville's Dick Mourdock will be the State Treasurer candidate. And Lake County's Todd Rokita will be seeking re-election as Indiana Secretary of State.
They are already out campaigning, organizing and fund-raising.
The Democrats, on the other hand, are cowering. The state Demo chair will handpick the candidates... that is, if he can hogtie and dragoon some poor unwitting Democrats to be so foolish as to agree to become a statewide Democratic candidates on a ticket led by ..oh, wait a minute, the Democrats don't have anyone running for United States Senator.
The Allen County Democratic ticket will look like a block of Swiss cheese with REALLY big holes.
I wouldn't spend much time thinking about Win Moses, if I were you, my friend. Or you might get to thinking about the fact that an overwhelmingly Democrat district is the only place Moses could ever think about getting elected. And others might get to thinking that with Moses occupying that seat - the Democrats aren't even trying to get blacks elected to legislative seats in Allen County.
Perhaps Mike Bynum would be interested to know, Mr. "Anti-Knuth," that he is not black. He is running for State Senate.
Running very invisibly.
Is this how Knuth and the Allen County Democrats promote candidates? By saying, "shhhhhh"?
The News Sentinel wrote on 4/26/2006
"People voting for Larsen aren’t voting for Larsen," Souder said. "It is a way to kick at me."
If it is true that those who supported me in 2006 was a way to kick at Souder, then 29% of those who supported me might end up voting for Hayhurst. This would increase Hayhurst's vote considerably.
As a side note, my support grew by 85% in Allen County over 2004. Thanks to all those who supported me.
Well, I have lost track of what "anonymous" poster we are up to- so to whomever wrote the following:
Running very invisibly.
Is this how Knuth and the Allen County Democrats promote candidates? By saying, "shhhhhh"?
++++++++++++++++++++++++++
I really do not understand what you mean. I did not see the Republican party pushing Randy Borror during the Primary. DOes that mean they do not want to promote him???
...oh, wait, I see, he was unopposed.
The Primary process is simply a nominating mechanism, the campaigns begin now.
Hey Mr. or Ms. nominating mechanism,
The difference is that Randy Borror and Tom Wyss are incumbents.
Bynum and Werhle are the challengers.
You might explain that to Knuth, the chairman of a party with the Swiss cheese ballot.
A challenger has low name recognition. A challenger needs all the help he or she can get to get known. Bynum and Werhle should have used the primary to get their names out.
Like was said before the Democrats do not do much to promote black candidates in Fort Wayne.
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