Primary Predictions
These are my predictions for the primary. I reserved the right to change my mind if a campaign does something to warrant a change.
GOP Primary
Brown vs Irving:This will be the most highly contested of the races in the GOP primary. It is also my greatest chance of being wrong. Both candidates have high negatives with the public. Marla barely squeeks by.
Bloom vs Buskirk: There aren't enough negatives on Linda for Roy to beat her. Had he been against Marla he would have won. Bloom by 7%.
Miller vs Warner: This race has gone under the radar so far. I haven't seen anything that tells me Call won't win. Miller wins.
Foster, Fries, Griffith, Keesler: Fries has been more visible in the last year than the other GOP candidates. He also has the money. Fries by a landslide.
Souder vs Larsen: Souder hasn't done anything to change the results of the last few primaries. Souder in a landslide.
Pence vs Holland: No contest really. Pence in a landslide.
Pond vs Worman: Worman's only chance to win is with his name. His last campaign proved that wasn't enough. Pond wins.
DEM Primary
Boyd vs Hayhurst: Hayhurst is a popular Democrat in the bluest part of the district. Hayhurst wins big.
Joyner vs Taviano: Joyner's visibility will trump Taviano's grassroots efforts. Joyner wins.
GiaQuinta vs Paddock: His father's legacy and name recognition beats Paddock. Giaquinta wins.
If I am missing a CONTESTED local primary let me know.
GOP Primary
Brown vs Irving:This will be the most highly contested of the races in the GOP primary. It is also my greatest chance of being wrong. Both candidates have high negatives with the public. Marla barely squeeks by.
Bloom vs Buskirk: There aren't enough negatives on Linda for Roy to beat her. Had he been against Marla he would have won. Bloom by 7%.
Miller vs Warner: This race has gone under the radar so far. I haven't seen anything that tells me Call won't win. Miller wins.
Foster, Fries, Griffith, Keesler: Fries has been more visible in the last year than the other GOP candidates. He also has the money. Fries by a landslide.
Souder vs Larsen: Souder hasn't done anything to change the results of the last few primaries. Souder in a landslide.
Pence vs Holland: No contest really. Pence in a landslide.
Pond vs Worman: Worman's only chance to win is with his name. His last campaign proved that wasn't enough. Pond wins.
DEM Primary
Boyd vs Hayhurst: Hayhurst is a popular Democrat in the bluest part of the district. Hayhurst wins big.
Joyner vs Taviano: Joyner's visibility will trump Taviano's grassroots efforts. Joyner wins.
GiaQuinta vs Paddock: His father's legacy and name recognition beats Paddock. Giaquinta wins.
If I am missing a CONTESTED local primary let me know.
posted by Indiana Pundit at 10:12 AM
15 Comments:
It is difficult to venture a call on the Democratic Sheriff's race.
However, I disagree on Paddock and GiaQuinta. Geoff will be given his due and wins over Phil.
Geoff was a landslide winner in the school board race. He doesn't win as handily as he did for school board but he will win the nomination.
I think Geoff would be a better choice. I just don't know how much the general voting public knows where the differences lie between Ben and Phil.
When people don't know anything about Phil more often than not they will look to Ben's philosophies to make their judgement. That being said, Ben has often led his party in votes within his district.
I'd bet you a steak dinner if it were legal to make a wager in Indiana.
If it were possible, you could email me the location of the steak house once the primary is over. I would agree to a non-disclosure of the steakhouse location to protect your identity.
Why would you need to email the location of the restaurant? 'Cause I wouldn't be buying.
Phil lost a race for county treasurer the year that Ben lost to John Becker by the narrowest of margins. Some thought Phil's presence on the ticket hurt his father's race.
Also, brother Mark had primary opposition when he ran for re-election to City Council. The surprising percentage of Democrat primary ballots cast against Mark probably had something to do with Mark abandoning the race to Dede Hall for the 5th District Council seat.
I am simply analyzing this as on an objective basis.
Indiana Pundit, I suggest you go back and look at Mr. Paddock's fundraising reports for school board. The depth and breadth of support as shown on his finance list was impressive.
I'll take another look at his numbers. Then I'll decide whether to take you up on that hypothetical dinner.
Joyner has said publicly that he won't be raising money. Do you think that visibility alone will trump more than a $40,000 campaign warchest on Taviano's side?
Whoo hooo! This should be a hoot! Parley vs. Pundit... I wonder who will win. Aw, Mitch is probably just joshin' ya Pundit.
It's my understanding that Taviano has national gay/lesbian groups funnelling money into her campaign chest; not really a positive endorsment from my perspective. To be kept from office based on lifestyle is discrimination; this also goes for being backed simply because of sexual orientation. Vote here is with Joyner, fancy fundraising or not.
Make sure the person you're backing wins! Don't assume the front-runner will already be a shoe-in and your vote isn't needed. Stand up for what you believe: VOTE!
Phil GiaQuinta is a vote getter in his own right. He led the ticket for Wayne Township Advisory Board in 2002 (in a bad Democrat year) and gained more votes than Matt Schomburg, the winner of the Trustees race.
Don't even try to tell me that Phil is more popular than Matt Schomburg. Schomburg would win hands down in a head to head matchup.
How about the Adams Township race?
There's not much to say about a township race. Do you know something I don't?
No, but why is there so little interest in the townships? Seems the coming years could be tough considering how the state wants to take control away from them.
Just the fact there are contested races that should be considerted
People don't get excited about positions that they don't understand or those that seem mundane.
Its also hard to make predictions on campaigns that have such a tight demographic. In most cases either the incumbant or someone with high name recognition wins the race.
The same goes for school board races too.
Oh my God. Have you seen the Victory Fund Gay/Lesbian internet site supporting Taviano? She better hope this does not get out or her goose is cooked. Too much baggage for me.
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